Post by: Helena Trooperman
Dated:   28th March 2023

Welcome!

My new blog series helps explain how World events and milestones help me to determine my writing timeline. At first I’m starting with the big picture, but in coming posts I will fill in more detailed real world targets that have helped me decide on a writing window which I think allows me to be as inventive as I want to be. The tricky thing is, that the real world sometimes catches up with writers. So setting the timeline, especially in the #near-future sub-genre can be risky.

Here’s how I’m going to breakdown looking at the future:

• What are the world’s forces for change that will affect the near future?
• How can I hone this window more for writing in?
• A quote

What are the world’s forces for change that will affect the near future?

What does the near future hold? As an author in this subgenre I have to capture the earliest and then farthest significant predictions that change the world. Initially, this will be what I call my time window. What I’m looking to develop is my writing window.

Currently, (2023) we are in a period of change, and I mean, utter change and development.

Humans are scheduled to set foot on Mars in 2024 as claimed by a private startup partnership between Relativity Space & Impulse Space. (I mean at one point SpaceX was a startup too.) However, most other space organizations claim manned flights to Mars will be between 2030 and 2040. So far, this makes 2024 the earliest possible date for the start of my time window.

Many countries have unmanned missions to the Moon this year mainly because of the water detected beneath the Lunar South Pole. This could be a great place to test living off-world and a large cache of water would be helpful for refueling for Mars. This is all important, but is mostly flybys and besides isn’t distant enough.

Climate change has a major target for the discontinuation of fossil fuels by 2060. Not soon enough, in my humble opinion, but in the UK NET-Zero plan is set for 2050. This reduces my writing window to 2050.

Climate has to have been steadied long before then, but moving large populations to action is a science in itself. Isaac Asimov was fascinated with this form of complexity in his Foundation series.

Our near future is an era of extreme innovation.

I knew that I wanted to anchor my first series decades before 2060, at a time when saving our climate is still up for grabs. Honing my story writing window would need to take into account my science fiction loves.

Science fiction has a part to play inspiring us to look forward to what is to come and help us believe we can make the changes necessary.

Don’t believe science fiction can do that? Take a look at why our world needs science fiction. This is a TEDx Talk by Etienne Augé.

But how can I hone this time window to find my writing window?

I can start by deciding my main areas of personal interest. I came up with three that will have real world events and happenings that will impact my writing window.

Inventions
Those that improve our quality of life AND improve our ability to be green.

Becoming Multiplanetary
This is looking more and more like a future reality for the human race as long as we keep innovating. Living on other planets in our system is extreme. This is clearly much farther out than any first landing, but when? The environments are far more hostile than here and to live out in the Solar System we must solve many issues that help our environment too. It costs so much to get out into the system in the first place, there’s the financial force to make products that can be sold here that will work out there. However, there is a risk that must be mitigated. There is no Plan B, humankind can’t just evacuate the earth and leave it for dead while moving on to the next planet. The only equation that doesn’t fail humanity is to remedy climate change and pollution here, while aspiring to populate a new home. So, the journey to becoming multiplanetary HAS to be a win for everyone on Earth. A small settlement on Mars will rely on space travel during times that Earth and Mars are close together in their orbits. Looking at this schedule hones when my stories can begin.

Energy
There are several types. It will take many green energies to become self-sustaining. Supply reduces by a fall in demand, but is that true of fossil fuels? Is the switch over happening too slowly? Looking at EV’s (electric vehicles) is one way to determine some broad timescales and will be helpful to my worldbuilding.

(There’s a huge list of products upstream of the oil and gas industry that we can choose not to buy. Lots of green products can still be caustic so care is needed. Find more ideas on my helenatrooperman Instagram #EcoMe story.)

Here in Ontario we rely on nuclear energy, hydroelectricity, wind, and solar. The remainder is still generated from natural gas and biomass – but the bulk is zero carbon.
However, in Canada as a whole, our biggest problem is the oil sands of Alberta. One day without fracking a year would help make our emission targets for that year. That’s how bad it is! Greatly reducing demand is the only legitimate way we have to curtail the need for supply. However, as removal of oil from the sands is most cost effective to produce when oil prices are high, the only time to end this production is while supply is plentiful and demand is low. (Sadly, the oil industry makes substantial political donations each year. The Government of Canada could always do more to stop fracking even if it’s to provide major alternative employment in Alberta than the oil industry.)

Another angle on energy is innovations that reduce the usage of electricity/hydro. A good example: lightbulbs switching to LEDs.

Location is also a factor for the type of fuels consumed. In rural areas fossil fuel may be the most economical still. For example, Canada is vast and green initiatives need to be made favourable to switch to.

Will the electric/hydro supply be overburdened if everyone switches to it? Here in Canada there’s often brownouts in the winter. If a home is all electric/hydro this can be life threatening.

When do we consider value over profit?

Then there’s the economic monopoly of everyone being electric/hydro. Will governments allow this to be a major profiteering system? Or a system to save our planet and keep the people safe? How can augmented wind power and solar power result in higher bills?

A quote

“The purpose of a storyteller is not to tell you how to think, but to give you questions to think upon.” Brandon Sanderson

Questions I will be looking at in future posts are:
When will all new cars sold be electric?
When is a small thriving settlement on Mars likely?
When will Saudi’s smart region, Neom, deliver?
When will batteries be 100% green?
When will we be multiplanetary?

The answers are not set in stone, they are educated guesstimates at best. They are simply a start. As I write I will hone in on my story timeline and each story will have its own short list of what-ifs to answer and pose more questions along the way.

There’s a whistle stop tour of some of the things I’ve personally been doing to help the environment, go visit my Insta #EcoMe Story @helenatrooperman #follow4followback

Or maybe, you have a friend or family member that would enjoy this post, please share. It’s easy, just copy the page link and send it to them. Feel free to check out any associated posts listed below and leave a comment if you enjoyed this post.

I hope some of the questions I’m asking resonate with you too. I don’t have the answers yet but I’m going to enjoy exploring them and innovating beyond them.

Keep Calm and Stay Positive!

Afterword:
(I live in Canada & my stories are in Canadian. 😘 That’s why some of the spellings are British rather than American. These are not typos, although occasionally, I still make those – oops! But not too many.

You may also be interested in:

• When will all new cars sold be zero emissions?